A new Belgian study examined the famous comment by Gary Lineker, which suggests that German teams more likely to score (and win) in the last minute.
The Belgian arbeidseconoom Stijn Baert has a peculiar hobby. In his free time, studying and punctured he likes sportmythes, especially when it comes to football. If underlying message that the football world is better guided by hard data than by gut instinct.
1008 European competitions
And with the help of Louis Van Den Broucke, he takes now the famous statement of ex-professional footballer and BBC commentator Gary Lineker. Who declared in 1990 after the lost semi-final against Germany, the well-known words: “Football is a simple game: 22 men running 90 minutes chasing a ball… and in the end win the Germans.’
But does this ruling? Grades certainly didn’t, as appears from a thorough analysis of the results of 1008 European competitions between 2008 and 2014. This shows that German teams are not more likely to score and win in the last minute (added time, after the 90th minute) club competitions in other European countries.
Spanish and French teams as well
But with other nationalities, there was however a significant static bias’ in the research results. So it turns out that Spanish and French teams there more often manage to get late goals to avoid than teams from other countries. Which suggests that they are more robust and easier a result the line it can draw. Their tactical approach is possible also to learn, Baert and Van Den Broucke. The same applies for English club competitions, but only if they have an English coach.
Dutch club competitions scoring more often than any other club competitions in the last minutes of a match, but also get more often of late goals against. What seems to indicate that our northern neighbours more often big risks, dared to take on the end of a match, then teams from other countries.
Dutch teams are known for their attacking approach and the results seem only to confirm, clarify Baert, that is to say for Belgian teams, no significant deviations could determine.
Also, die Mannschaft is vulnerable
Yet this, the results of the Belgian econometric study on the same line with the results of an earlier international study of van Ours and van Tuijl (2) with late goals in matches of national teams. They studied the late tegendoelpunten between 1960 and 2010 in all major international tournaments (world cup, european CHAMPIONSHIPS and Copa America) and came to the conclusion that the Argentinians, the Italians and the Germans were the most scored in the added time.
But the same study also showed that ‘die Mannschaft’ more late goals received any money. What there is seems to point out that the famous comment by Gary Lineker actually not more than another voetbalmythe.