A month ago it was the young politician Juan Guaidó international is still a noble unknown. Now he has himself declared president of Venezuela. Reconstruction of a raging ride.
It began on 5 January when Juan Guaidó (35), until then just a member of parliament from the opposition, the new president of the Venezuelan parliament, and president Nicolás Maduro immediately …
It began on 5 January when Juan Guaidó (35), until then just a member of parliament from the opposition, the new president of the Venezuelan parliament, and president Nicolás Maduro immediately openly declared war. The parliament is just about the last crumb of democracy, the land of rest. In the parliamentary elections of 2015, the latter of which is more or less fair were, were the chavisten flock to the house vote. In 2017 decided Maduro, therefore, that an alternative assembly with party members on its feet.
Crucial to the daring leap of Guaidó to understand, is the decision on 4 January by the ‘Group of Lima to the second term of Maduro as president not to recognize and only the parliament as a democratic entity. The Group from Lima was in 2017 established to provide a way out of the Venezuelan crisis to search for and consists of more than ten Latin American countries, plus Canada, with the support of the United States.
The countries – with the exception of Mexico, where a new left-wing president is in power – that Guaidó immediately recognized as the new leader of Venezuela. Guaidó felt so supported by the neighbors. The political map in Latin America in the last few years has changed color. Many countries traded left-wing leaders in right. Only Cuba and Bolivia continue to Maduro unconditional support.
Money is worth nothing
The situation in Venezuela under president Maduro already has become untenable. The Venezuelan economy is in ruins, money is nothing more worthy of health care is barely there, the crime rises and three million Venezuelans have fled the misery. Why, then, now that twist?
Perhaps, the prospect of six more years of the same. On January 10, explained Maduro for the second time, the oath, this time to 2025 to stay in power. It was typical that he that is not for the parliament, did, as is customary, but in the Supreme court. He is still in the hand. The presidential elections of last year were a farce. Not even 30 percent of Venezuelans went to vote.
On the other hand, turned out to be the opposition, and even then, already hopelessly divided. Even about a boycott, she did not agree. Research showed at the end of last year that 80 percent of Venezuelans want change, but less than 30 percent for the opposition, writes El País.
Gevangeniskleren are ready
And there has Guaidó change in. In no time, he succeeded in hope and trust. The engineer by training argued as the student had when the predecessor of Maduro, Hugo Chávez, the country slowly his hand began to convert. He is also the poulain of Leopoldo López, just about the most prominent political prisoner of the country. Together they stood at the cradle of their political party Voluntad Popular. That Guaidó recently myself, and was arrested by the security services, strengthened his following and respect.
“I’ve got your cell already prepared, the right clothes are ready. Choose your entourage but so that you know who your company will keep, stupid child’, tweette Iris Varela, minister for prison, two weeks ago to the address of Guaidó. The question is what she now has planned for him. The support is great, Guaidó retweet at a high rate, messages from Donald Trump to Guy Verhofstadt.
But the aid comes in shades. So struggling in the EU, with the recognition of his self-assigned president. According to the rules of the art, it is eventually also not. Brussels emphasizes that it is fast elections, wants, something Guaidó also promises, its function is ‘ad interim’. There are also countries who, without hesitation, behind Maduro scissors, such as Russia or Turkey.
What with the army?
The key question is what the Venezuelan army. It was always the military that a president in the country’s make or break. The top seems to remain loyal to Maduro – a lot of high military are on European and American sanctielijsten, and fear, may be for their future – but there are cracks in the support. Guaidó is of simple origin, and his grandfather was a military man. With his promise on amnesty for military personnel who Maduro abandon, he may have a sensitive chord had been touched.
But it remains a toss-up. Because of international aid, which is already powerful sound to them on Twitter, the question is how that is completed at the time that the regime starts to strike back. Large protest in 2017 fell more than 150 dead and also the last days were already at least 16 demonstrators in the life. Guaidó has gambled. It is still not clear who won or lost.