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IS defeated or not? Also, Trump has to guess

The Us president, Donald Trump continues with his decision, all U.s. troops to withdraw from Syria. But how strong is Islamic State (IS) now actually? Not a simple question.

“We have won. We have BEEN defeated, ” said Trump in a video message, that he on 20 december on Twitter placed. “Our military men, women, and men, they return home, and do it now.’

The United States currently have 2.000 soldiers stationed in Syria. Who wants to be the American president as soon as possible back at home. Their presence is no longer needed, said Trump initially, because the terreurbeweging IS still defeated.

An assertion which soon criticism came, not in the least like allies of the United States in the fight against IS. But also within the White House there was murmured. As James Mattis, minister of Defence, which prompt his retirement announced – and then was instantly at the door.

Nevertheless, it took Trump a part of his words. Would now only still ‘largely’ reports, tweette he two days later. “When I was president, went on a wild rampage. Now they are largely defeated, ” wrote Trump on the socialenetwerksite. “Other countries, such as Turkey, can easily deal with what’s left of them.’

But during his night visit Wednesday to the Al Asad air base west of Baghdad, dominated again the winning mood. “We have knock-out beaten. We have them all red beaten, ” said Trump for a group applaudisserende military. “We are no longer seen as suckers. The world respects us back.”

Thousands of IS fighters

How it really is? The territory by the fighters of the Islamic State is controlled, recent years, which is indeed exponentially smaller. But reports, the terrorist group is still a long, warn experts.

According to Brett McGurk, presidential envoy in the fight against IS, have the most terreurcellen is only temporarily withdrawn, ‘waiting for the departure of the Americans to a guerrilla war to start.

The estimates of how much they still are, vary widely: the United Nations think, for instance, that there are still 20.000 à to 30,000 IS fighters are active. For comparison: in 2014 ran some estimates on up to 200,000 fighters.

 

At most ‘temporary’ peace

That certainly doesn’t mean that that is no longer to be feared. ‘IS is driven out of the cities. Former strongholds Raqqa and Mosul are in ruins. But there are still rural regions on the border with the Syrian Deir Ez-Zor where the group is a place of employment, ” says Koert Debeuf of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.

Debeuf: ‘IS also has an influence and religious control on for example Homs and Damascus. 10,000 to 15,000 fighters, roam around in the region. In the past week demanded IS 76 attacks against, from Syria to the sinai desert. That seems to me to be no reports of danger.’

If so, all there is peace in Syria, is that, at most, a temporary rest. Specialists point out that the departure of American soldiers on the long term, even serious consequences might have. As long as the terrorist threat is not entirely gone, it is likely that the terrorists will soon be the strings back in our hands. Then there’s the years of antiterreurbeleid, that security in the cities was to bring, little about, say the specialists.

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