Theresa May kicks the Brexit can now, for a moment. How big is the chance that she’s her deal by the British house of Commons?
What will May do?
She has started a kind of ultimate round of the despair along the European capitals. Today sees the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and German chancellor Angela Merkel. …
What will May do?
She has started a kind of ultimate round of the despair along the European capitals. Today sees the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and German chancellor Angela Merkel. She also goes to the European summit Thursday begins.
What exactly they want to achieve, is unclear. May has problems with the emergency for the Northern Irish grenskwestie. The British fear that that clause of their country for good in the customs union will keep. A fundamental change May not get, may possibly be an accompanying note stating that the EU never really plan is that a workaround to activate. But such a note will never have the force of law. The official scheidingsakkoord that has. She will be so happy with a dead sparrow’.
Should the house of Commons always give his blessing to that scheidingsakkoord?
Absolutely. The vote yesterday is only postponed. When the parliament re-votes, is not known. Only that January 21 should be done. May has only some time bought.
She may be the house of Commons still convince?
No one believes that this can still. By to postpone the vote, she has even more anger aroused, both among the opposition and within his own party. The best guess remains that its deal with a large majority being rejected.
There new elections?
That is not necessary. There may, within the Conservative party and a fight erupt to the leadership. For new elections to the house of Commons, a majority of two-thirds to be found. Or there must be a motion of censure be adopted, for which a simple majority is sufficient.
Offer of new elections as a way out of the impasse?
Not at all. The chance is small that they can be organised for march 29, 2019, the day that the UK out of the EU. But even if they succeed, the outcome is highly uncertain. Wins Labour? The opportunity exists, but also within that party is the disagreement large about what type of Brexit, there must come. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will certainly not make use of the possibility of Brexit is to stop.
No one really knows what Corbyn exactly wants. There is often talk of the Norway scenario. Norway, together with Iceland and Liechtenstein in the European Economic Area. That means that they are part of the single market, but not in the customs union sit. There really are border controls.
That scenario provides no watertight solution for the Irish border. In addition, should Norway all the rules of the EU, the free movement of persons allow and pay to the EU. All elements that make the scenario unmarketable.
The no deal getting closer?
Absolutely. May has these negotiations very poorly managed, but she was right when she says that there are actually only three possible solutions are: her deal, no deal or no Brexit.