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The man came never so much CO2 out as this year

At the climate conference in Katowice is it this week about the reduction of CO2 emissions. But for the time being we encounter, worldwide but more. Yet there is also a bright spot.

The consumption of oil and gas, for several decades steadily increasing, this year once again grown. And after years of decline, the kolenstook again. This year, the releases of …

The consumption of oil and gas, for several decades steadily increasing, this year once again grown. And after years of decline, the kolenstook again. This year, the emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2 is expected to reach 37 gigatonnes (Gton), almost 3 percent more than last year. Therefore punch the man in 2018 more CO2 than ever before, reports the international organization Global Carbon Project, which in 2001 by scientists was founded and since then, every year the CO2 emissions of man.

The increase of CO2 emissions in 2018, for a large part on the credit of China, India and the United States. In Europe drops the CO2 emissions for 2018 are expected to understand light, even though the consumption of oil, driven by an increase in the number of (freight)cars and the number of miles driven.

The published today forecast is based on all sorts of data on the first nine months of the year. The uitstootcijfers restrict themselves to the use of fossil fuels and cement production – which together account for 90 percent of the total man-made CO2 emissions. Other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, are not included. The analysis is published in the journal Earth System Science Data.

“This is very disappointing’, says managing director Josep Canadell of the Global Carbon Project on the increase of the emissions. ‘The emissions grow again almost as hard as at the beginning of this century, when China’s enormous growth,” says Canadell via Skype. He works as an ecologist at the Australian research institute CSIRO.

At a climate summit in the Polish Katowice try the countries that in 2015 the climate deal Paris signed this week to agree on how they planned reduction of the CO2 emissions are going to measure and check. The goal is to be the global warming limit to well below 2 degrees Celsius, and most preferably up to 1.5 degree. About that last goal is Canadell ‘pessimistic’.

Surprising: more kolenstook

What came as a surprise, says Canadell, is the increased use of coal this year. Since 2013 saw the researchers understand a decrease. Particularly in China and India took the kolenstook however. “They have a lot of stations on 40, 50 percent of their capacity turned. That is to screw.’ Further increased in China, also the use of natural gas meant to the air pollution by kolenstook limit. Especially the heavy industry requires in China more energy, in particular because there is more steel and aluminium is produced. In India grew to understand the production of cement strong.

Also in the United States, the CO2 emissions increase despite the closure of about 250 coal-fired power plants in the last eight years. That are closed because of the low price of natural gas, by the greatly increased extraction of shale gas (difficult extractable gas in leisteenlagen). That the Us CO2 emissions this year, however, increases by the combination of a relatively cold winter in the eastern half of the continent (a lot of burning of fossil fuels for heating) and a very hot summer (big need for cooling via air-conditioners).

Bright spot: cheaper wind energy

There are also bright spots. That lists a group of scientists (partly linked to the Global Carbon Project) in a commentary that was published in Nature. So is the generation of wind and solar energy in ten years time, much cheaper now. In Morocco, Mexico, Chile, and Egypt is the cost of solar energy is currently at 3 cents per kilowatt hour, cheaper than power from natural gas. Further improves battery technology quickly, grow the number of electric cars hard – although it is a fraction of car traffic – and makes the global heavy industry plans to be in 2050 climate-neutral.

But for the time being increases the CO2 emissions. Also for 2019 expect the Global Carbon Project an increase, because the world economy is expected to grow, which is still accompanied by a growing use of fossil fuels.

The measures that are now in Katowice will be discussed, putting the earth on a path of 3 degrees warming. In their commentary in Nature, write the authors, that the ambitions will have to be increased.

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