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The bumpy Brexit-trail of Theresa May

The British prime minister Theresa May is trying Wednesday her government officials to convince them of the technical pre-agreement about the Brexit, that on Tuesday the European Union was reached. It is only the first hurdle of what is still a very long and bumpy trail.

May is from Wednesday afternoon, together with her ministers to the provisional Brexit agreement to discuss the technical negotiators Tuesday afternoon in Brussels reached. That discussion starts at 15 hours, how long it will take to fall in advance it is very difficult to predict. It can be a lot of sides: the calls can last for hours, until they all align in the same direction show, but it is just as well possible that it soon becomes clear that no consensus is possible. In a not beckon immediately, the fall of Mays government and a hard Brexit.

Succeeds Theresa May – who Wednesday morning by news agency Reuters still ‘the weakest British leader in decades, was called – in it its government to convince, then they preferably this month, the agreement was sealed at a special European summit. The weekend of november 17 and 18, was in september appointed for that special top, but now that is a very short day. It is rather at the end of november, possibly not until the beginning of december.

The agreement approved get on that Eu summit would, in principle, a formality. The European Union has until now very united negotiated the Brexit, it seems likely that one of the member states an agreement now would torpedo.

Fight against the time

The real work, if it’s already that far, however, begins only then. Even before the christmas – so still for 20 december – hopes May the whole deal by the British parliament to guide. A majority find, is a feat. In principle, it should September 320 members of parliament for winning. That has May not do without at least the gedoogsteun of the Northern Irish protestants of the DUP. That are skeptical. “If what is now known, it is true, the text is unacceptable,” said Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader in Westminster, Tuesday night.

Succeed this year, not more, than the parliament in early 2019 the wire although pick up again. But that is risky. ‘May must at any price avoid that the parliamentarians have a whole christmas break is the time to poke holes in the deal to shoot, ” said a high diplomat earlier against The Standard. ‘Therefore, speed is of crucial importance.’

If that hurdle is the European Parliament. That should for 29 march 2019 the green light. That day, we depart the United Kingdom from the European Union.

Stumbles May?

Manage all of this for 29 march, is going to be a transition in. During that period, the Uk should adhere to the rules of the internal market, but it could already start negotiating with third countries about new trade agreements. Also with the European Union will consultation take place, on the further implementation of the future relationship. That transition runs until 21 december 2020. Only then, the Uk has the EU abandoned.

Stumbles May during this bumpy obstacle course, then it seems almost impossible that march 29, a new deal from the bus, who was also by all relevant parliaments to be approved. In that case we get a hard Brexit: from one day to the other is the European legislation no longer in force in the United Kingdom, the rights of EU citizens in the UK can no longer be guaranteed, and there is a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

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