Tim Draper recently announced a Bitcoin price of $ 250,000 up to the year 2022. Similarly, different investors look traditionally on a bullish financial statements. But how likely is such a course are the forecasts?
A comment by Dr. Philipp Giese
No matter how long the price of Bitcoin sideways Permabullen die not: and roll over in rate forecasts. The institutional investors are in front of the door, the ETF is coming soon and the Bakkt Futures to catapult us all to the moon. On top of that, the price of Bitcoin rose in the fourth quarter. Or not?
The objective of this article is not to crush all of those hopes, to think but, what speaks for and against a crypto-Christmas 2018. We would like to take a statistical look at the Bitcoin price development and, finally, the different arguments for a bull market rate.
A look into the crystal ball: Where is Bitcoin the end of 2018?
We start with the statistical view. In the first quarter, we introduced, such as Monte-Carlo simulations in the course, assessment can help. According to this, the course to the end of the year should lie with a probability of 68 percent between 5,000 and 65,000 US dollars.
With such a wide interval, it would be far-fetched, to celebrate now with a “correct price prediction”. One can, however, say that the Monte Carlo method was confirmed. With all the care you can use this crystal ball again and see what to expect price developments to new year’s eve 2018.
The result of this Monte-Carlo Simulation is rather sobering. With a probability of 68 percent of Bitcoin will therefore exchange rate between US $ 4,000 and 8,700 US dollars. Sure, results to 19,000 US dollars to this forecast are possible, but the probability is rather low:
“But at the end of the year Bitcoin is risen!” is often emphasized. Admittedly, since 2011, the price of Bitcoin has fallen in the fourth quarter only once. Unfortunately, however, in the year 2014, the year, which is similar to the current one the most. At the beginning of 2014 the price of Bitcoin could crack the first Time the 1,000 US Dollar mark. This is followed by a prolonged bear market.
The Situation in 2018 is quite similar: by the end of 2017, a new all-time high was reached. On the Basis of past price movements is therefore to be expected, rather less with a dramatic rise in the Bitcoin price.
Also from the point of view of technical analysis, we are currently still far from a bull market. The Bitcoin price is currently below the moving average of the last 20 weeks, MA20, and is more of a Test of the in October 2017-defined soil:
From the point of view of technical analysis it looks, judging by the dramatic decline in trading volume, rather the opposite, at least according to a further sideways movement. Coupled with the Monte-Carlo Simulation, speaks to the statistics rather against a new crypto-winter fairy-tale.
Possibilities for Black Swans: The attempt at a classification
Statistics is always A. Dramatic price rallies can speak to this. What point is the potential for a Monte Carlo in the shadow of the Bull Run is there this year? A glance at the fodder for the cops:
DEX and Lightning – A technology that continues to grow
At the latest after Coincheck and Bitgrail trust in centralized crypto is shaken exchanges. Still the whole Drama of the Tether-Bitfinex-Connection and the pre-dangled volume on the Exchanges don’t lead to great confidence.
Notwithstanding that decentralized exchanges go regulatory issues out of the way, can you hope to get out of this a much higher transparency in terms of trading volume. In addition, the Funds are not stored centrally on an Exchange, which makes it difficult to disasters such as the Coincheck-theft. With decentralized exchanges, investors will be able to build up much more confidence in the crypto market.
However, not only on this Front is being worked on. Second-Layer solutions, such as the Lightning network, or the Plasma can overcome the current limits of scalability in a sustainable way. Atomic Swaps, which are also thanks to these solutions, may also contribute to a decentralised exchange trading of crypto-currencies and so the entire Ecosystem strengths.
Adban adé – crypto currencies, more visible on Google
While the Google search volume of Bitcoin falls more than the price of Bitcoin, but a slight correlation is present. Accordingly, an increased visibility of crypto currencies on Google would provide a higher presence in the media, which can lead with increasing interest at higher rates.
Recently, Google has been advertising its policies changed. Thanks to this, it is now regulated crypto exchanges for a ban again possible to advertise on Google. The focus is on regulated Exchanges is useful. This restriction leads to crypto-newcomers are more likely to encounter regulated and safe exchanges because of their dubious counterparts. Even without the above-mentioned decentralized exchanges can increase the confidence in the market. Coupled with increased visibility can trigger quite a price rally.
The institution Ellen – Futures, ETFs and Broker for Bitcoin to Come
As the Christmas coming of the Saviour, the crypto-scene is waiting for the institutional investors. Understandable, because with this much money would come into the crypto-market. Whether or not Bitcoin Futures of Bakkt, the ETFs from VanEck, and SolidX, or large brokerage firms such as TD sounds Ameritrade – everywhere the keyword “Bitcoin”.
There’s no question that the institutional investors really big money can come in the crypto sector. Only what relates to the Futures, I’m not quite so sure – the memory of the influence of the CME, and CBoE Futures is still too fresh, as I believe this is a sustainable bull market.
However, should large investors in Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies not as a speculation object, but as an independent asset class for discover, it would be very positive. Yale, and others show The interest on the part of investors.
You see: Even if the current rate of development, as well as the statistics do not stimulate straight to the Cheer, there are currently several very positive developments. And so you can not view with a euphoric, but a hopeful glimpse of the future. Who knows, if we’re good, there are until Christmas, but the hoped-for Bull Run.