The world trade organization sees the Blockchain as one of the technologies that are shaping the future of world trade. In your Report from the 3. October, the WTO sheds light on the opportunities and risks of digitisation for the global trade. It acknowledges the opportunities the technology that is under Bitcoin.
The sparrows, the whistle of a digital future from the roofs, have long since succumbed to the Alterstod. Meanwhile, hardly anyone doubts the fact that the digitisation is attracting virtually all of the areas in a (“developed”) society by how fat the Wagyu Steak veins. Also for world trade, the new digital technologies offer enormous potential – in both Good and Bad. At this potential, the main focus of the World Trade organization (WTO) was the creation of your World Trade Reports 2018.
The big Four – the Blockchain, including
The WTO has identified four technologies that could take, according to their study, the greatest influence on the global trade happen. In addition to the Internet of things (IoT), Artificial intelligence (AI), and 3D-printers, the Distributed Ledger technology (DLT) is one of these, represented by the Blockchain.
“The Internet of things (IoT), Artificial intelligence (AI), 3D printing and the Blockchain have the potential, the way we act, who is acting and what is acted to change fundamentally. The wide dissemination of digital technologies is changing the composition of the trade various services and Goods and defines the rights of the intellectual property in the trade.“
The WTO stresses that the term “Blockchain” all of the Distributed Ledger technologies. So it fits the General use of language, also referred to other DLTs, as, for example, the Tangle of IOTA, as the Blockchain – which is technically quite correct. The WTO praises the potential of the Blockchain to the cost savings, especially in administrative and transaction fees, in particular in cross-border transactions. As a concrete example of efforts in this area, the WTO announced in addition to Circle the banks platform Ripple. The latter already has over 100 cooperation partners, the experiment with Ripples Blockchain solutions xVia, xCurrent and xRapid. That to the XRP-Token-by-step xRapid-technology since October in the case of some banks, has failed in the crypto-Space waves – and in massive price increases for the XRP-Token manifested.
Most clearly could benefit micro-according to the report, Small and medium enterprises in developing countries of the block chain – related cost savings:
“A lot of trade costs such as logistics and transaction costs, or costs due to cumbersome customs procedures burden KKMUs strong and are much higher in developing countries. Innovations in cross-border payment systems have had their greatest impact in the areas of developing countries and KKMUs. Therefore, the potential of the new technologies is facilitating trade for MSMEs and developing countries disproportionately large.“
Until the Blockchain technology can develop this potential to the full in world trade, must be overcome, according to the WTO, some of the challenges:
“In fact, it is the critical Interplay between the technology to cope-driven structural change in the world economy on the one hand, and the ability of the world trading system, these changes and adjustments, on the other hand, has largely decided on whether global Integration has progressed in the last two centuries, or Vice versa. “
This structural change is also associated with failures, is also of the WTO aware of. Although it certifies that the Blockchain technology at a very high level of security, but poorly-programmed Smart Contracts and user interfaces of Blockchain applications on Smartphones and Tablets attack for some devastating Hacks offer. The world trade organization leads the way here is the DAO-Hack of 2016 as a cautionary example. Another Problem is the lack of inter – compatibility of block chains-Litecoin “is not a Bitcoin speaks”. However, technical efforts for the elimination of this circumstance (e.g., in the Form of Atomic Swaps) are recognised by the WTO. Also, the standardization authority of the ISO to deal now with the subject and illuminates the problems of this digital “island of education”.
Finally, the poor scalability of Bitcoin & co. was a Problem. Bitcoin and Ethereum may not be enough with your ten to 20 transactions per second, well-established payment service providers like Visa the water. Here, too, the WTO mentioned that approaches to a solution are already in place – even if it solutions are mainly private Blockchain -.
Gartner: Blockchain trillion-US-Dollar-market
A third Problem represents for the world trade organization, as yet, widespread regulatory uncertainty. How is it legally to the recognition of the Blockchain transactions? How are crypto-classified-Assets such as Bitcoin or XRP? Also in the question of liability, there is still considerable need for clarification. The success of the Blockchain technology in the digitization of the world’s trade stand and the case with the Act of the competent regulatory authorities:
“Ultimately, it depends on whether the Blockchain is the digitisation of trade financing is successful, whether the current regulatory challenges are addressed effectively and whether the advantages associated with the use of the technology to outweigh the costs to the exchange of existing systems – which includes only the dispatch of digital versions of documents. The current System might seem expensive, paper intensive and cumbersome, but it is efficient in terms of the protection of the law.“
The market researchers from Gartner Inc, the WTO Report cited, drawing, however, an Outlook for the market impact of the Blockchain-technologies in the coming years. Accordingly, the technology is currently still in Phase 1, which was characterized by “irrational Exuberance” as well as “a few Giants”. This Phase will continue until 2021. Between 2022 and 2026, Gartner forecasts a increase in focused investment, accompanied by numerous successful business models. By 2030, the technology will provide a “global, large-scale value-added” to 2030 for the companies involved, rinse, finally, by a combination of cost savings and earnings growth, a trillion US dollars in world trade – a forecast of the likely to connect to many of Hodler thrilled.
Money talks, bullshit walks
One of the sectors that will particularly benefit from the Blockchain technology, is the logistics sector. This is also recognized by the world trade organization. As a case example, is mentioned here specifically, the shipping company Maersk, which wants to send the project TradeLens in cooperation with IBM Container via the Blockchain, especially the documentation and Bureaucracy. This make up one fifth of the cost per shipped Container.
Money talks, bullshit walks. This also applies to regulatory authorities. The louder the Calls of the company are in accordance with regulatory framework for Bitcoin, Blockchain & co., the faster the lawmakers of this world are in motion, provided it is not a grass-roots revolution previously.