Scientists from the Stevens Institute of Technology analyzed 3.3 million Tweets, and 344.000 entries of the bitcoin talk forum. They confirmed what many people suspect already for a long time: Posts on social networks such as Twitter to influence the Bitcoin rate. But not the one that scream the loudest, have the most influence.
Price manipulation in Bitcoin is a big topic in the crypto world. A month ago U.S. authorities began investigations, as some traders are suspected to influence using unfair methods of the Bitcoin rate. Then published BTC-ECHO an investigative report on how easy it is to buy ICO-Ratings – all the more reason to be cautious about spending. However, it must not be manipulative: How now, from a study of the Steven Institute of Technology, is at the mood on Twitter and the bitcoin talk Forum the development of the Bitcoin price. The researchers found that there is a weighting of the influence of the. The group of “breastfeeding” posters are more influential than others.
However, after the row. The team of researchers from the Stevens School of Business around Feng may has collected two years of data from the bitcoin talk Forum and evaluated. For evaluation they used in collaboration with research teams from other universities in a Python Script. This simplified the analysis and were able to split the data into different categories: Positive, negative, and other. In addition, they collected a total of 3.4 million Tweets on the topic of Bitcoin was.
With the statistical methodology VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) and compared Changes in the Bitcoin price, with the mood in the Community. To work as correctly as possible, based indicators such as the S&P stock market Index, gold prices and volatility indices.
The influence is not, however, only one-sided, as the researchers found. The mood in the Forum and on Twitter, therefore, has an influence on the Bitcoin price. However, in the other direction it behaves the same way. Of course, drops so the mood in the talks is changing. So in may of explained:
“Many of us knew this may already be intuitive. But these were the first robust statistical data, to the connection between social media and Bitcoin-show rate.“
Even if it sounds banal at first, were these findings to be an indispensable tool for the further studies. In the next step, the researchers split the Posts in two other categories. The group that posts often, and 60 percent of the total number found and the group, the less likely something.
The “silent mass” has the greatest influence on the Bitcoin price
It was all about figuring out who actually has influence and who pursues only his own interests:
“Noisy users of social media have sometimes boosting, maybe a certain Agenda, such as, for example, the Bitcoin rate, because they themselves have invested.”
The result: anyone Who shouts out loud, is not always right. Because people who comment very often, do not have much influence on the Bitcoin price, so the result of the study. Rather, the “implied, it was the end of mass” that could influence the Bitcoin rate. You log in only rarely, provide, however, in-depth analyses. This radiation ultimately more competence than all of those colorful personalities in the crypto world, who every day bring the same analyses:
“This was an interesting result. It proves that people of the ‘silent non-mass’ tend to trust, perhaps because they act as if they pursued an Agenda.”
So it’s worth it so, the detailed and in-depth analyses to pick and choose to follow instead of the loud cries of the Influencer and alarmists:
“If you follow the comments, the irregular word, you get a much more accurate prediction of the Bitcoin price – which is suitable for both active as well as for potential investors.”
It is as always: Do your own research. A look at the bitcoin talk Forum is worth it.