The bear market takes no end. Analysts are trying to the reason for the falling Bitcoin to explain the course and give hope to a new bull market this year. In this article, food for thought will be given in other directions.
A column by Philipp Giese
After the course tested a for months, undergoing a Triangle Pattern broke through, and since half a year, current Support, broke the course again and is testing the Support at 5,300 euros. The volume of trade continues to decline and, except in moments of course-Dumps, so for the first time in over a year.
Also most of the other crypto-currencies, it goes bad, so you probably need to exercise soon Tether as a currency in the Top 10.
Of course, it is spoken in the media about the reasons:
- The Central Bank of India is said to have applied to all banks, transactions with respect to crypto-currencies. Although the restrictive attitude of India is not new, but this should have led to a large Sell Off.
- Japan’s requirements for Exchanges to have contributed, in turn, have a sale.
- Finally, the current EOS-fiasco, it is worth mentioning That a crypto-currency, whose Launch was connected with many hopes, after some initial difficulties, currently the primary about the censorship of transactions in the News, for investors, disappointing.
Whether the reasons are or whether large whales is a global Pump-and-Dump-to-play game. In any case, the analysts in the media for a reason. What yesterday was the Chinese new year, today is the pending tax refund and the morning of the winter sale. The same analysts are also not tired, “until the end of the year,” the great bull Run to predict who will lift the rate to 10,000, to 25,000, $ 60,000 or even more.
So poles have mixed words, I me, I don’t want to talk to such forecasts and search for bad reasons. Behind the forecasts of really interesting approaches are often, as you can see, for example, Tom Lee of the Fund, entered.
What are the signs of a coming bull market?
Personally, I don’t want to sit other price forecasts out the window. A few months ago I have shown, then, based on Monte-Carlo simulations, the uncertainty of such forecasts. At the very daring example of John McAffee, I have analyzed as the (Un)likelihood of his bullish prediction.
In my opinion, it is important to what is necessary to create Bitcoin, so we are again in a bullish. In January and February, I referred to the MA20 in the weekly chart and said that this is a measure of a bear market. Since the end of January, the Bitcoin-price is below this Level. Two Times, at the end of February and the end of April, could increase the rate temporarily to this Level, however, for not much more than a week. Really of a bull market, therefore, I speak again only when the course is at least three weeks above the MA20. According to the current state, this means that the price must rise in the long term than 6,800 Euro.
How deep can we go down?
Depending on how long the price remains below this brand, you can decrease this threshold, of course. This comes to the second question: Should break the current support level, which I expect, then, for rate cases? Between August and September, the share price moved between € 3,000 and € 4,000. You should assume that we are really in a bear market, would be to reach this Level even if the current drop is taken from the RSI as a base. The RSI would fall with the same speed as in the past, would be reached in December, an RSI of 30, so you would also speak to a long-term perspective of an Oversold. The last Time this was the beginning of 2015. At this time, the end of the since 2013 ongoing fall reached. Bitcoin moved only sideways and finally upward. Accordingly, I see these heights currently, as a further important support area.
What that means for the crypto-Investment?
Does this mean that I will buy nothing more? No, as described elsewhere, I am always friend-of-the-Cost-Average approach. In bullish times, I would combine this approach with the Mayer-Multiple-approach, and so long in Bitcoin to invest until the price has risen above a certain Level. In the end, I am for some time been rather quiet on the long-term price movements. In the short term, there are always opportunities for Long and Short Positions, the promise, although the gains as the end of 2017, but also trackable. Therefore, the price movements continue to be seen weekly. From the point of view of long-term investments, but I don’t run after each quickly pronounced hope of a new bull market for the next tax season, the next harvest festival or the next new year, but watch prefer how the price with respect to the MA20 behaves in the weekly chart.
Especially in the bear market: It involves much more than courses!
Finally, the most Important: Bitcoin consists not only of price fluctuations. For one, you can use Bitcoin to pay for either things or to accept as a payment option. We are all part of an incredibly exciting Revolution, things such as banks, payment methods, money and centralisation. All of this is achieved with a disruptive technology that is self-standing also insanely interesting. I was just in the Lightning Hackday and have learned so much about the Lightning Network, that I know now, what opens up a great world for the Interested. UTC and #buildl so back to my motto: make use of the crypto currencies, has you with the technology and ideology behind it – and build something themselves!
I could write more, only I need to set up well away from the Laptop and my Lightning Node.