Trump the dominant position of countries such as North Korea, China and Russia strengthened and that of its key allies in the region – South Korea and Japan – has weakened.
After the historic summit between the American president Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore see the world looks suddenly different. Not because the two leaders with their encounter …
After the historic summit between the American president Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore see the world looks suddenly different. Not because the two leaders with their encounter a breakthrough managed to force in the process of denuclearisering of North Korea, because that was missing completely. They also knew not to understanding about how a nuclear disarmament of North Korea would look like. Or any term that would need to take place. They knew, even no new date for a follow-up appointment to speak.
But there was talk of a major change in the policy of the United States. Trump said on his press conference after the summit that he was planning no joint military exercises with South Korea more. He called the exercises “war games”: much too expensive and much too provocative.
Bad news for South Korea
South Korea seemed to be surprised by this announcement of Trump. From a statement from the South Korean presidential palace falls to make that Seoul be willing the new situation, to accept it, but happy president Moon Jae-in, barely. The man who is the top to a significant extent made it possible, as a reward for his efforts by Trump in a difficult position. South Korea can no longer automatically count on the US as a strong and reliable military ally. Certainly not, because Trump also indicated that he eventually thinks of the withdrawal of his about 28,500 troops from South Korea.
Good news for China
One country that is very pleased about, is China. Beijing was worried that a rapprochement between Kim and Trump, there eventually would lead to American troops directly on the border with China. That chance is now only become smaller. China have less to be afraid that the role of North Korea as an ideological ally and a buffer between China and the Us forces lost. China is also happy that the military exercises for the time being in the job: that are also referred to as the deterrence of China in the region, but stop suddenly.
China said Tuesday for the first time out loud the idea that the sanctions against North Korea can be relieved or suspended. Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Chinese ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the UN Security council “would have to do to the current diplomatic efforts to support”. That would allow the sanctions to reconsider, because “the sanctions are a means and not a goal”. China will certainly also the support of Russia.
If the sanctions indeed are lightened or lifted, or as China and Russia, in practice, there is not more to love, falls for North Korea all the pressure to speed up a sequel to the negotiations. Especially if the country has access to enough oil, there is no reason to rush more.
Frightening news for Japan
Big loser of this top also seems to be Japan. The Japanese prime minister shinzo Abe said that he was happy that Trump with Kim has spoken about the fate of in the seventies and eighties by North Korea kidnapped Japanese citizens. He needs to Trump on his word believe, because in the final declaration is also about nothing back to read.
That Trump not only the military exercises cease, but that he eventually also preferably as little as possible on American forces in Asia places, is frightening news for Japan. The land is his defense is very dependent on the united states. Japan may since the Second world War, no offensive military machine and it feels increasingly threatened. Not only by North Korea but also by China, which is increasingly aggressive and self-confident operates in the East and South China Sea. Also, the country has no clarity about the possible dismantling of the North Korean nuclear weapons that Japan can achieve.
Reputatiewinst for Kim
All in all, Trump is as correct are loyal allies in the region undermined. He has the position of China, North Korea and Russia in the region strengthened. It is difficult to see what the USA there are now exactly back: in any case, not a complete, verifiable and irreversible nuclear disarmament of North Korea.
Trump got himself in Singapore especially positive about Kim. He was willing to give him without any firm commitment on his word. He called Kim a “very talented man who is very much his country loves”. He also said lots of plans for Kim to join in the White House, because he wants Kim still “very, very often” meet.
Kim has useful uses of Trumps hunger to the history books as the man who finally peace founded on the Korean Peninsula. Kim got so – without anything to deliver – in addition, the status of an internationally respected statesman. A leader who is on equal footing to deal with the president of the United States. That similarity was also visible in the carefully directed images from the top: North Korean flags were hanging to and to with American flags. Both leaders were seen in a setting that was very similar to how president Trump world leaders receive the White House. They gave each other a number of times in the hand and Trump laid a friendly hand on the arm of Kim, who later is the same in Trump did. The were historical images which almost clashed with the meager contents of the brief declaration.
How to proceed?
It has remained in a first encounter between the two leaders that the allies of Trump weak are left behind. How now to proceed, remains unclear. This is not even a timetable. The world is by the top changed: Trump has the dominance of autocratic countries like North Korea, China and Russia strengthened and its main allies in the region, South Korea and Japan weakened.