According to John McAfee, the Bitcoin is expected to rise course by the end of 2020 to one Million. The well-known crypto-Evangelist is so sure that he puts his best piece on this Claim. But is this really realistic?
Undoubtedly, John McAfee is one of the more colourful characters in the crypto-Ecosystem. The founder of McAfee Associates, has already made his interest in crypto-currencies is always a talking point again, but with his interest in Bitcoin and other Altcoins, he has become particularly present. Just between the years, he has made controversial applications of various Coins. As later came out, he makes such Appraisals princely reward.
While the Endorsements for various ICOs or cryptography a very short half-term, currencies can be a forecast, said: In July of 2017, he stiffened to the statement that Bitcoin would have until the end of 2020, a value of 500,000 U.S. dollars. Something vulgar he underlined this statement:
“if not, I want to eat my dick on national television.”
At the end of November, he has made his bet even more interesting: Since the price would have been significantly better than his based on specified model behavior, he would now of one Million dollars going out. His manhood was still on the game.
According to own statements, John McAfee can be a doctor in Point-Set Topology and can say the price in advance. While John McAfee is not in the cards, however, can be described according to various sources, the Claim of McAfee using an exponential price development.
Such models per se are not uncommon. Classical investments such as the Dow Jones or the Dax in principle, such a development will describe:
The page fnordprefekt.de offers Interested is an entertaining Tool that can be used to such Price predictions yourself model. And in fact, as some of the pages of promise, it can be assumed – at least approximately – the appropriate price development. Unfortunately, it can only be a sense of proportion to say whether the model can really be made on the Basis of the data justified. In this article, is to be developed, therefore, an exponential pricing model, which fits Best to the actual course development.
In a parabola to a Million dollars
For the modeling of a Fit on the Basis of the time between the 17 first. July and the 29. November 2017 created. As a function we assume the following:
Rate = K0*(1+slope)^(t-t0)
The to the course course the optimal function would be one in which the distance between this model and the actual rate is at its lowest. One gets logarithmic, then the following connection:
The data of the Fitmodells can now be used to determine a value for the 31.12.2020. And actually! The best Fit leads to the end of 2020, extrapolated, even at $ 23 million. To the extent that one could say, therefore, that the prediction of John McAfee is to be very conservative.
The Problem with such approach is that we have focused above on the development during a Bullenruns. If, starting from July 2017 until today the data is taken into account, you “only” half a Million.
This study could be to perform even more precisely: How to develop the forecast for the 31.12.2017, depending on the start time point? For the next consideration of the Fit is polished until 31.12.2017 extra, where the Fit to data is based between a variable start point and the current date.
Of course you can look at the data only to a limited; from the beginning of 2018, the statistics is too low, according to, one obtains highly variable forecasts. But before that, the Graph looks as follows:
As you can see, the prognosis is “a Million dollars per Bitcoin”, at least, a Fit based on an exponential price development is currently not sustainable. If one takes into account only data since the beginning of/the middle of 2017, the prognosis is durable, however, the predicted price then falls dramatically. In the regard, it is to be feared, that the Claim of McAfee was primarily due to the bull market.
Beware, McAfee: Just a slight chance for a Million!
A different approach was presented a few months ago: Using random Walks and the Monte Carlo method can be used to model estimates on the Bitcoin price. In named article, the goal is to receive only about a year, a price statement was, however, the method can also be used for longer time predictions. We look at the distribution of simulated price developments until 31.12.2020. In the histogram, the probability of the achievement of specific courses will be displayed on the same:
If account is taken of the last 2,000 courses, there really is a certain probability for a course that is the end of 2020, with one Million euros. How high is this? Unfortunately, only 3 per cent.
Whether now John McAfee is Worried about his crown jewels should make, will show the time. It is established that his bold forecast is not impossible, but quite unlikely.