Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in seem best with each other. Dreams about a Korean reunification is, however, premature. The German experience shows why.
This is the beginning of a new history, said Kim Jong-un, when he made this morning – as the first North Korean leader since the end of the Korean War in 1953 South Korea walked into …
This is the beginning of a new history, said Kim Jong-un, when he made this morning – as the first North Korean leader since the end of the Korean War in 1953 South Korea walked into a meeting with president Moon Jae-in. It was quite casual. Kim week, even off of the captured scenario, and invited his colleague to, hand in hand, one foot in the North. The guards of the protocol were just not heart attacks.
Even more, both countries want to have this year a permanent peace and a peninsula without nuclear weapons.
The logical next step: a reunion
The cordial meeting gives a new impetus to reflections on the reunification of the two koreas, separated since the Second world War. A reunion seemed suddenly one step closer, when the northern and southern athletes at the Olympic Winter games in February behind one flag, marched.
But so far it is not. About reunification was already spoken in 1972, in 1990, in 2000 and in 2007. Each time without result. Few South Koreans believe in. According to a recent study from the National University of Seoul, only 2.3 percent of the North Koreans with a reunification within five years. That does not take away that almost 54 percent of the find desirable.
The obstacles are gigantic
The pessimists realize that the obstacles are enormous. What is Kim Jong-un as, in fact, he says the reunification to pursue? One country under his rule? Dream but, Supreme Leader, for that draws not a single South Korean.
‘One country, two systems’, such as hong Kong and China? Kim realizes, however, that even a minimal easing of the repression are doodarme, hungry countrymen to protest can be successful. The fall of the Berlin Wall shows what can happen. The East German rulers lost everything. And Kim is the always and for everything to do for the survival of his dynasty.
The German reunification also shows how difficult it is to have two totally different economies to integrate – and then the DDR was still a lot better than North Korea, whose gdp is only one percent of that of the South. After thirty years, the eastern Länder of the West has not bijgebeend. A merger happens, so it is better very gradually, realizes the ministry for Korean Reunification in Seoul. The south is, therefore, very apprehensive about a sudden implosion of the regime in Pyongyang. First the northern economy in the coming decades, step-by-step to be restored. But even that would be for the rich south is a tough one. Moreover, younger South Koreans are not really willing their wealth to share with the northerners.
Another, a very steep obstacle is the amalgamation of two totally different cultures: the rural, ill-informed, collectivistisch thinking northerners would have a hard time with the strong competitive zuiderlingen.
When the German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier for the Olympics in Seoul, he warned his fellow Moon, who likes to be inspired by Willy Brandt’s policy of détente with the eastern Bloc, the fall of the Berlin Wall, not by an all-too-rosy glasses to view. The Ostpolitik succeeded, but put a heavy pressure on the West German society.
That inter-Korean barriers pale in comparison to the geopolitical aspects of a reunion. Today is the North Korean danger is the cover for the US to almost 70,000 troops in South Korea and Japan to station. China would no longer tolerate when there is peace prevailed between the two koreas.
The German reunification was successful because the other states are eventually laid. Also, François Mitterrand and Margaret Thatcher that a too strong Germany feared. And also the Soviet Union who hoped Germany to the Nato maneuver. Beijing, by contrast, would North Korea prefer to retain as a buffer against the American sphere of influence.
A reunion can’t be without Kim’s nuclear program specify. It continued today, however, with vague words about ” a atoomvrij peninsula.