What are the scenarios for Catalonia?

454a793760be9ad61afa99f79d7108b8 - What are the scenarios for Catalonia?

Tuesday, which celebrates the Catalan parliament, the new minister-president. In theory, it is that Carles Puigdemont, but the Spanish government in Madrid wants to prevent. Which scenarios are possible?

The Catalan regioparlement comes Tuesday met to vote on a new prime minister. The only candidate is Carles Puigdemont, who in October dropped by Spain, after the independence of his region had been named. He fled, and not much later to Belgium, where he is months later still is.

A long time it was speculated that Puigdemont perhaps from abroad would reign. In Spain is the man, after all, prosecuted for rebellion and sedition. Still left the Catalan at the end of last week means that he is happy to go to Barcelona were to travel back for the swearing-in as head of government.


1. Puigdemont returns, ingezworen and Catalonia lead

This scenario would be the easiest, but at the same time the least likely. On december 21 of last year, the separatists or a majority in the parliament – a defeat for the Spanish prime minister Rajoy but because Puigdemont indicted for rebellion, sedition and abuse of taxpayers ‘ money, there is the risk he will be arrested as soon as he set foot on Spanish soil.

Nevertheless the oath abroad and, for example, via Skype Catalonia reign? Impossible, according to the Constitutional court in Spain. ‘Puigdemont can only take the oath if he were physically present in the Catalan parliament”, reads the. There are even the legal advisers of the Catalan parliament to agree on.

Puigdemont really need to be called to the parliament building. But suppose that he freely touched and take the oath, he can still claim parliamentary immunity, so he can no longer arrested risk? Lawyers are already divided on the question of whether Puigdemont as niéuwe prime minister not prosecuted for criminal offences if voormálige minister-president.

2. Puigdemont is remotely ingezworen, but can not rule

This scenario implies that the Catalan parliament, the Spanish constitution set aside, and Puigdemont remotely inaugurating as the new minister-president. Impossible is certainly not, especially now that three of Puigdemonts former ministers who are now also in Belgium, have ceased to hold office.

From abroad, they had no voting rights to Puigdemont to support, so that its majority is the de facto kwijtgespeeld had. But their deputies in Catalonia have already insured that they onafhankelijkheidsblok would support.

The stuikelblok remains still that Puigdemont is not present in the parliament to take the oath. That makes his minister-presidency is unconstitutional, so he will not be able to govern.

3. The Catalan parliament is wearing a different candidate for minister-president, and buy as two months time

The most likely scenario is the option that onafhankelijkheidsgezinde ERC already hinted: that there is another candidate for the minister-presidency are nominated. So in the short term, a legal fight avoided, because Madrid has already let it be understood that article 155 remains in force if Catalonia would be thinking Puigdemont again to wear.

The separatists buy with a other candidate, also a two-month period. That they will be able to use, because currently there is not an instant view on an alternative for Puigdemont. ERC president Oriol Junqueras was in that light that briefly considered, but is currently in prison.

A more moderate candidate, then, to the storm, with Madrid a little too calm? One can think of Roger Torrent, the new president of the Catalan parliament, which, at his inauguration the need for unity stressed. Only: also Torrent has Puigdemont already pushed forward to the Catalan government.


The Catalan question has been months for one unexpected twist after another. A last-minute unexpected change is certainly not to exclude.

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