“The taliban are too strong to defeat’

The taliban take advantage of the divisions within the Afghan government of national unity to strengthen their position and to commit attacks. The United States, run in circles and hope that it is sooner or later to negotiate.

Your government is powerless and no one is safe. Those are the two nieuwjaarsboodschappen that the taliban afleverden with a series of bloody attacks in the Afghan capital Kabul. They check …

Your government is powerless and no one is safe. Those are the two nieuwjaarsboodschappen that the taliban afleverden with a series of bloody attacks in the Afghan capital Kabul. They check in the meantime, an estimated one-third of the territory of Afghanistan – more than ever since the US, the country at the end of 2001 was invaded as a response to the terrorist attacks of 9/11.

There came last year to 8,000 civilians. With each expansion of the taliban save the citizens (preventive) on the flight. According to OCHA, the UN department for Humanitarian Affairs, arrived there in 2017 475.000 displaced persons. Also Islamic State will gradually set foot on the ground: the terreurbeweging claimed this morning’s attack on a military academy near Kabul, with 15 deaths.

Undermine

The think-tank International Crisis Group blames the deterioration of the security situation, especially the lack of unity within the government. After the presidential election of 2014 swept the US an agreement from the fire between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, refused to accept the victory of the first to recognize. The result was a government of national unity, in which the first president and the second chief executive officer, a sort of prime minister, was. Instead of working together, as they solemnly promised, they work together especially against and undermine each other’s position.

“The political partisanship has penetrated to every level of the security apparatus,” wrote the Crisis Group a few months ago in a report. “That undermines the command structure of the Afghan army and security forces and their capacity to a growing rebellion to fight.’ Ghani (a Pashtun) and Abdullah (a Tadzjiek) appoint, according to the think tank people of their own etnie on all possible levels of government.

“International, financial, and military assistance is important to the progression of the insurgents to prevent. But the stability of the country depends ultimately on the willingness of Ghani and Abdullah to their differences and to work together to address the challenges in the field of security, economy and humanitarian situation to address, ” says the Crisis Group. But the next presidential election in 2019 announce itself, what the rivalry between the two can only increase.

Enough money and blood wasted

When he was not president, showed Donald Trump in 2013 through Twitter to know what, according to him, the solution was: “We have a huge amount of blood and money in Afghanistan wasted. Their government has zero appreciation for. Let the plug out!’ The war has made the U.S. according to estimates by Forbes already a trillion dollar cost.

But in August last year, decided president Trump to the number of American soldiers to pull of 8,500 to 14,000. A total withdrawal – something his predecessor, Barack Obama back in 2008 had promised – could lead to total chaos, had experts warned. At the beginning of this year decided to Trump to 1,000 advisors to send to Afghan soldiers to accompany and even more drones. He also decided to pressure on Pakistan to increase, because there are strong suspicions that the Taliban undisturbed their work in the border region. NATO decided in november to 3,000 additional troops to Afghanistan.

Everything has already been tried

It’s all more of the same, according to Laura Miller, who until June 2017 special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan was in the American ministry of Foreign Affairs: “More American soldiers: it is already tried it. We have put pressure on Pakistan for the country to have more cooperation to move, inter alia, by help thereof, to be related to. We use the long incentives for the Afghan government to get them the corruption approach and do something to the care of the population.’

The real solution can come only from negotiations between the government and the Taliban, with the support of key countries such as Russia, Pakistan and China. Washington is prepared to give such talks to support, without conditions. And Nikki Haley, the Us ambassador to the UN, said on 17 January that ” the policy of the U.S. works. We see that we are closer than ever, are in talks with the Taliban, and the peace process.’ Three days later came the attack on the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul in which 22 people were killed – among whom were several Americans. And Sunday there were 103 dead when an ambulance packed with explosives exploded in a busy street of the Afghan capital.

Stalemate

In an article In Foreign Affairs , writes Seth Jones of the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (ISIC) that the Taliban are too strong to be beaten, but for various reasons are not strong enough to win. “The ideology is too extreme for most Afghans, the leiderschapsstructuur is closely associated with the ethnic group, the Pashtun,” says Jones, who has a past as advisor of special operations at the Us army in Afghanistan. ‘They grab too much back to the brutal methods that thousands of innocent citizens killed, have to a large extent involved in corruption and hang many of the unpopular allies such as Pakistan.’

Jones therefore expect that the stalemate between the government and the Taliban, the most plausible scenario for the near future.